Barter
1/30/2018 10:47:05 am
This is a little different and requires a bit of research, but make a prediction as to who will win the Senate. Then comment on why somebodies else's prediction is wronggggg! Be nice.
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Braxton Neeley
2/1/2018 10:54:36 am
After doing some math to the total seats available the republicans have 8 total senators up for election 5 of which are solidly republican and being from TN my self that state swings occasionally but rarely so in reality cnn even says this the republicans only risk Losing 2 senate spots which i believe that since flake resigned the republican that would have issues getting elected wont be the one running so AZ i think will go Rep which leaves only Nevada which even if the republicans win the Democrats need 2 seats gained not won not to mention the other 5 potential competitive races all have democratic senators currently so if the republicans snag even one of those states their majority could get bigger or just stay the same for the dems to get a majority they would need to win every toss up including the ones with there senators at risk other wise the make it an even 50/50 or the reps keep their majority therefore being that risky guesses are more fun ill guess 52-48 in favor of the republicans
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Austin Olsen
2/1/2018 09:05:40 pm
Very good analysis Braxton there's a lot here that you mentioned that point tword's a possible "hold ground" or even a "gaining of ground" in these Senate races. The problem is that there's likely going to be a push back from Trumps election. I say this because there is ALOT of angry and upset people becuase of Trumps election. This may cuase a anti-Trump move in the Senate where there would be a rally of sorts that would vote Democratic to oppose the Donald. It may not happen but it is possible. And if there is going to be a flood of voters going for the Democrats it will be a huge flood. We will half to see what happens I guess. But any way, very good analysis on this whole situation. ;)
Terik Steele
2/2/2018 08:02:37 am
I believe your giving republicans to much credit on keeping their spots. I think there will be a democratic victory as foreshadowed by the election in Alabama last year, where a Democrat won. A lot of popular support is going to the left this midterm, so that's why at the very least democrats will win a majority.
Angelise Garcia
2/2/2018 10:45:15 pm
I think that like Gabby, you're not accounting for the margin of error both parties face. Regardless of who wins, I think that based on the current prospects, a win will be based on 1 single vote. However, I do agree with your acknowledging the chances of a 50/50 outcome, as that is entirely possible at this point.
Barter
1/30/2018 10:47:40 am
Due Friday 2/2/18
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Barter
1/30/2018 11:14:53 am
Your prediction must be an exact count D vs R
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Gabriela Galaz
1/31/2018 05:36:57 pm
There seems to be a lot going on with the upcoming senate elections since the results can potentially toss up who has the senate majority. Because of what the article states and patterns of previous elections, I believe that democrats will win the majority elections by 52 Dem and 48 Rep. It has been seen that when a party holds a majority and people become discontent, power switches to the opposite party. The chart from the article also shows majority of states lean democratically rather as opposed to the few states that are strongly republican.
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Angelise Garcia
2/2/2018 10:12:04 pm
I think you're giving the Democrats just a little too much leeway. Regardless of who wins, I think that it will be by a single vote based on both parties prospects. While the Democrats seem to have more support, the Republicans don't have as much to lose.
Salvador Valencia
2/6/2018 08:59:35 am
I would have to say that you are giving democrats to much leeway. Most of the major states that are democratic trump won. Republicans have less people for reelection.
Terik Steele
1/31/2018 06:45:11 pm
I'm probably giving a little to much generosity to the democratic party because I want them to win the majority, but I think its gonna come out an even 50 50 for each party. I think because a lit of people don't like Trump that they are gonna sway democraticly, so I believe the democrats will win the states that are suspected of leaning democratic. For toss up states, it obviously could go either way but I think democrats will win most of them
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Drew
2/2/2018 11:06:20 am
I would disagree and say that the Republicans could pull through with more seats because even some Republicans don't like Trump, and the Republican party would want to stand their ground because I would wager they think they can influence Trump some with policies they agree with, rather than go to the Democrats who don't have policies they agree with at all for the most part.
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Aaron Reyes
2/1/2018 10:46:43 am
There is a lot at stake in this election and the tension is even higher due to the 2 seats required for the democrats to hold house majority. My prediction is that the democrats will win 51 to 49. I mostly think this because of the democrats having a solid chance at winning Montana and North Dakota. This is because as history has shown win the people are discontent with one party they generally switch to the other available party. Trump has not exactly been a popular president and has caused much controversy of which I am sure will sway other states in favor of the democrats.
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Toscya Williams
2/5/2018 06:12:02 pm
Although you do make a keen point that Trump is not very popular due to the controversy that never ceases to follow him, I do not think it'll be enough to sway the vote. (I mean it didn't change anything for the presidential election.) Arizona will most likely swing Republican and as for the other three toss up states, they've voted for Trump in the past so they may remain in that ballpark this election .
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Austin Olsen
2/1/2018 08:51:14 pm
So I might be crazy for saying this but y'all need something to disagree on so here we go! I believe the Republicans will hold they're ground in the midterm elections it will be tough. If they loose even one seat they'll loose the minority in the Senate with a 50 to 50 seating outlook. One of the main things I belive will keep the Republicans possibly dominat in the Senate is the fact that the economy is in a major bull market right now thanks to Trump (for the most part). The Trump voters will likely reelect republicans back into the Senate to allow or help get his agenda passed. Resent polling shows that Democrats have a extream advantage in the midterms coming up, at the same time election polls have been wrong before, they may be wrong again. The major thing though is the economy, if the economy keeps booming and stock/the DOW keeps hitting new highs Republicans have a chance to hold they're ground during these midterms. I belive there will be either a 50/50, 49/51 or 48/52 Republican majority as a result from these midterm elections.
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Drew
2/2/2018 11:03:03 am
My prediction based off of the CNN link and also from 270towin.com, is that the Republicans will maintain the lead of the Senate, 51-49. The Democratic tossups that are running are all incumbents, and likely to be reelected.One of the Republican tossups is an incumbent and one nomination is TBD.
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Drew
2/2/2018 11:10:03 am
Also, like Braxton said in class today, Arizona has been pretty solidly Republican, and Martha McSally is moderate enough that she could be elected by even some members of both parties. And the whole thing is kind of a tossup but I believe that the moderate outcome would be that Republicans would maintain their seating. I don't really think there would be a way for them to gain seats, but I could be wrong.
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Barter
2/9/2018 08:11:55 am
She has to win the primary though. Joe is popular in Phx
Angelise Garcia
2/2/2018 10:09:01 pm
I think that the result of this election will end up being 49-51 in favor of the Republicans. They have more solid seats than the democrats, and can rely on toss ups to gain the margin needed to gain the advantage. This leg up however, is a rather small margin. I think that CNN is giving the Democrats more credibility than is actually there, and that the Republicans would win based on the fact that they have less to lose than the democrats do. And even if the Democrats pull through, I think it will be by the same aforementioned margin; A single extra vote will most likely be the determining factor
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Gavin
2/3/2018 06:01:11 pm
After taking a look at the map i think the republicans will still lead 51 to 49. However, i have a hard time saying this, due to Trumps continued unpopularity with democrats anf even republican supporters this could change in an instant. The states that are toss ups can easily slide over to the democrats due to the discontent with Trump.
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Aaron Reyes
2/5/2018 10:34:47 am
I agree with Gavin in that the democrats have a good chance at winning in the toss up states but like I said I think they have a "good" chance not an absolute for sure win. This is mostly because in those states there are a solid number of people who are self proclaimed conservatives. Once people are self proclaimed it means that they have a really rock solid political alignment and are not likely to shift there ideological philosophies because of a few discrepancies within the republican party.
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Toscya Williams
2/5/2018 05:23:12 pm
After gathering some background information from CNN.com as well as other miscellaneous websites, I predict that the Republican party will keep control of the Senate with 51 to 49. Although the Democrats could win certain toss up states like Indiana, Missouri and West Virginia in order to have the majority, they're more vulnerable. With 26 democratic senators up for reelection, the Republican seems to be in a more secured place, with only 8 senators up for reelection.
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Salvador Valencia
2/6/2018 08:54:12 am
After taking a look at the map and the video, my prediction is that republicans will lead 51 to 49. There are 5 major states that are democratic but trump won them by a landslide in the election. Also there is more democrats that are up for reelection than there are republican. The only too states that I am worried about are AZ and NV. They are are republican but have people who might drop there positions.
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Barter
2/9/2018 08:46:16 am
53 R and 47 D
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